Dan Kowalski

Vice President, Knowledge Exchange

Dan Kowalski is an economist and vice president of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Division. In that role, he leads a team of economists that produces research for the agricultural and infrastructure industries that CoBank serves. He also provides commentary on how the U.S. and global economies affect rural America. 

Prior to joining CoBank in 2011, Mr. Kowalski worked with an economics consulting firm, providing research and advisory services to the food and agribusiness industries. Mr. Kowalski holds a bachelor’s degree in agriculture from the University of Delaware and a master’s degree in agricultural economics from Pennsylvania State University.

Recent Reports

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The Quarterly: Inflation Abundance, Commodity Shortage
October 2022

Despite ongoing impacts from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and lingering supply chain
effects from the pandemic, the U.S. economy remains incredibly resilient.

CoBank Quarterly: Clouds are Forming
July 2022

Fears of higher rates and weakening economic conditions
linger over the year’s second half.

The Quarterly: Omicron Upends Supply Chain Recovery
January 2022

Against all hope for a better start to 2022, omicron has crashed the New Year’s party. Renewed supply chain disruptions are being felt throughout the economy, causing empty shelves again and threatening to fan the flames of inflation.

The Year Ahead: Forces That Will Shape the U.S. Rural Economy in 2022
December 2021

As we enter the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the virus is still in control of the economy.

The Quarterly: Adapting to Persistent Supply Disruptions
October 2021

Businesses of all sizes and across most industries are wrestling with perhaps the worst supply chain bottlenecks to date

The Quarterly: A Long Tail—Pandemic After-Effects are Just Beginning
July 2021

The long-awaited period of pent-up, exuberant demand is here. And for all the benefits to businesses and consumers, bumps are unavoidable – labor shortages, price inflation, supply chain disruptions, and uncertainty about what a new steady-state economy will look like. They loom large, even as we celebrate a return to normalcy.

The Quarterly: We’re Not Going Back to Pre-COVID Conditions
April 2021

Anticipation of a return to normal is in the air. But for the economy and rural industries, there will be no going back to pre-COVID conditions.

The Quarterly: New Year Optimism Confronts the Pandemic
January 2021

2021 has quickly altered the political and market landscape. And optimism, particularly about the second half of the year, is rising. But to get there, all of us must muddle through for a few months more.

The Year Ahead: Forces That Will Shape the US Rural Economy in 2021
December 2020

The speed of the economic recovery will largely hinge on the availability, dissemination and reach of COVID-19 vaccines, pushing the expected burst of pent-up consumer demand into the latter half of 2021, according to a comprehensive year-ahead outlook report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange division.

The Quarterly: The Fragile Recovery is About to be Tested
October 2020

The coronavirus pandemic has now impacted all four quarters of 2020, and seemingly every aspect of life and business. 

The Quarterly: Rural Industries Adapt to Coronavirus Reality
July 2020

Over the past four months, every rural industry has grappled with how to adjust its business to remain relevant and sustainable in the pandemic. Agricultural supply chains have been massively disrupted and lost revenue. Water and power suppliers have adapted as commercial and industrial customers went dark and demand shifted to residential customers. And the communications industry is seizing a moment when home broadband access has become vividly essential, to help expand access to everyone, everywhere.

COVID-19 Impact: Virus Blame Muddies China Trade
May 2020

CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange division has just released its latest COVID-19 economic perspective by Dan Kowalski, vice president.

COVID-19 Impact: Economic Forecasts Getting Grimmer
April 2020

Economic forecasts are getting grimmer as the COVID-19 pandemic grows.

Agriculture Feels COVID-19’s Price Impacts
April 2020

COVID-19’s price impacts on agriculture are as serious as feared – ethanol, dairy, cotton, and the animal protein sectors are feeling the worst of the price pressures. Specialty crops are facing major revenue losses as they are mostly perishable and highly dependent on sales to food service and labor for harvest.

The Quarterly: Keeping Us Connected, Our Lights On, and Our Pantries Full
April 2020

The beginning of a new quarter finds us in unparalleled times – a pandemic ravaging the world, the U.S. economy in shutdown, millions of Americans out of work, and financial markets in turmoil. 

What to Expect from COVID-19 and the Rural Economy
March 2020

The U.S. economy’s plunge from COVID-19 is unprecedented. Agriculture will be somewhat shielded — but not immune — from the extreme volatility, as transportation and labor are areas of concern.

What the Phase One Deal Means for US Agriculture
January 2020

What does the US-China Phase One deal mean for US agriculture? What's in it? What will the impacts be? How achievable are the provisions? CoBank's Dan Kowalski addresses these questions and more. 

Quarterly US Rural Economic Review: Trade Resolutions Boost Optimism for a New Year
December 2019

The fourth quarter is ending with much more optimism on trade and the economy compared to how it began. 

The Year Ahead: Forces That Will Shape the US Rural Economy in 2020
December 2019

The U.S. rural economy will continue to face headwinds in 2020 and is expected to underperform relative to the economy of urban America. 

Quarterly US Rural Economic Review: Trade Remains the Focus as Tariffs Take Toll on Agriculture
October 2019

Uncertainty over trade policy, weather and African Swine Fever dominated agricultural markets last quarter.

The Currency Shift that Really Matters to Agriculture
August 2019

Currencies have been all the buzz of late. China’s decision to reduce support for the yuan in early August sent markets into a tailspin and triggered some central banks in Asia and Oceania to cut interest rates. Markets and policy makers feared that a currency war was suddenly afoot, and China’s devaluation could stoke a destabilizing race to the bottom in global currencies and interest rates.

Co-op Consolidation
July 2019

Agricultural cooperatives have been in a steady state of consolidation for decades. But despite the decline in the number of cooperatives, the influence of co‑ops in rural America is not shrinking.

Quarterly US Rural Economic Review: Stalled Trade Talks, Record Rains Upend Agriculture
June 2019

Global economic growth continues to slide, as tariffs drag on global trade and manufacturing.

Quarterly US Rural Economic Review: Agriculture Still Waiting For Relief
March 2019

U.S. agriculture is poised for serious challenges for the remainder of 2019.

The Year Ahead: Forces That Will Shape the US Rural Economy in 2019
January 2019

The U.S. economy is still performing well by most key measures. However, consumers, investors, companies and other market participants have become more wary about the near-term future with seemingly good reason. 

Quarterly US Rural Economic Review: Rising Output Compressing Agricultural Margins
October 2018

The escalating trade war with China is the leading risk for U.S. agriculture. Retaliatory actions taken by China and other trading partners have raised concerns of long lasting effects on agricultural supply chains. 

From NAFTA to USMCA
October 2018

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is set to replace NAFTA in 2019. Incremental changes will be modest for U.S. agriculture. But what’s included in the deal, as well as what is not, will have significant implications for all agribusiness sectors.

Help Wanted: Wage Inflation and Worker Scarcity
August 2018

Part of the rural labor shortage story is best told through statistics and trends. But to gain a more full picture of how labor challenges are affecting businesses, it is best to hear directly from those meeting the challenges head on.

Quarterly US Rural Economic Review: Trade War Rhetoric Shifts to Reality
June 2018

The risk of an escalating trade war is the greatest threat to the U.S. and agricultural economies in the near term. Nearly 70 percent of U.S. agricultural exports are sold to destinations that are under active negotiations or embroiled in trade disputes.

Quarterly US Rural Economic Review: Trade War Risks Loom Over Agriculture
March 2018

An impending trade war, continued large global supplies, and negotiations over a new farm bill and tax extenders continue to present challenges for U.S. agriculture and farmer cooperatives. Reduced harvests in Argentina and potential droughts in some parts of the U.S. have steadied grain and oilseed market prices but there remains a potential for significant volatility.

The Year Ahead: Forces That Will Shape the US Rural Economy in 2018
January 2018

U.S. cotton acreage will be up in 2018, but nowhere is that increase more transformative than in the Southwest. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are projected to increase planted area by 40 percent, 16 percent, and 6 percent, respectively.

Organic and Non-GMO Specialty Grains: Assessing the Impact and Opportunity for Growers
January 2017

Recent studies show that 68 percent of Americans have recently bought organic food items and 44 percent have recently bought non-GMO labeled food. So what impact are these trends in food consumption having on U.S. production agriculture?