U.S. Chicken Doubles Down on Value-Add to Meet Demand

Brian Earnest

January 16, 2026

Key points

• The U.S. broiler industry has kept pace with extraordinary growth in chicken consumption but is now facing supply and production challenges.
• To meet growing consumer demand, broiler genetics companies focused on improving feed conversion and breast meat yield, resulting in larger birds that require more processing technology.
• While genetic advancements boosted broiler weights, producers have grappled with fertility and hatchability issues that limit bird numbers.
• Instead of new broiler slaughter plants, capital investment is flowing into further processing and technology to expand value-added product capacity, which now dominate consumer sales.

While beef is still king of U.S. fresh meat sales, chicken has blown away the competition when it comes to cart space. Average per capita chicken consumption has grown by 30 pounds over the last 30 years. To keep up with the average of 103 pounds of annual per capita chicken consumption (retail weight basis, after accounting for exports, imports and production factors), the U.S. will produce more than 47.6 billion pounds of chicken in 2025.

This growth has been impressive, but chicken did not become the most-consumed animal protein in the U.S. overnight. A multitude of factors are shaping production and consumption volume, but what remains paramount are agility and continuous improvement through enhanced efficiency—while being able to address evolving consumer preferences.

Low grain prices, lean protein diet focus and subdued red meat production growth stimulated widespread broiler expansion approximately 10 years ago. Even though conditions today are similar, several factors have tempered greenfield primary broiler processing capacity expansion, including local community resistance, genetic limitations, capital outlay, technology improvements and regulatory uncertainty. Instead, economies of scale suggest value-add programs will be at the forefront of chicken production expansion in the late 2020s.

How genetics helped shape the modern broiler

In the 1950s and 60s, production of chicken in the U.S. was comparable to that of Old McDonald’s farm with roosters and hens intermingling and producing nothing more than a moderate surplus for operators. However, mechanized farming and feed production allowed for a wave of innovation and specialization in the animal protein space. Farming of chickens for meat, known as broiler production, followed urban sprawl in the post-World War II era.

Genetics companies that competed 60 years ago on the number of eggs and chicks produced per laying hen have transformed their ability and priorities to produce more poultry meat per chicken. By the mid-1980s, improving feed conversion ratios (FCR) became the new yard stick for broiler production. Efficient meat-producing genetic broiler lines gained a competitive advantage.

Through the 1990s and early 2000s, the focus on the nutritional benefits associated with lean white meat spurred operators to produce more breast meat per bird. This led to another moderate shift from FCR to yield. Since 2005, broiler meat production derived from offspring of a single laying hen has grown 17% to 1,000 pounds. But the efficiency gains of some of the larger breeds resulted in products that needed sizing and trimming, leading to technological advancements that portion and further enhance or process the meat to accommodate larger bird sizes.

As industry focused on meat per bird (yield), chick production faltered

Consolidation in the broiler genetics space has coincided with massive gains in broiler meat production. But there has been one major drawback: In recent years, United States Department of Agriculture data has shown a decrease in fertility and hatchability at the parent level of production. In short, while broilers continue to grow bigger, reproductive ineffectiveness in roosters has led to a decrease in chick availability.

While the industry has recognized this decline in hatching, consolidation in the genetics space has left producers with limited options to improve hatch. Just two main genetics companies supply the industry today, down from a pool of 28 broiler companies in 1985 that offered multiple breeds.

But can the trend of weaker hatch be reversed? It is possible. However, it would likely require a compromise in genetic attributes to achieve improvements. Implementing this change at the pedigree pipelines will not impact broiler production for two to five years, at least.

Just as it took several decades of intense selective breeding to identify and implement breeds that are efficiently producing breast meat, it could be four to seven years before genetic progress is made to improve hatch. At present, gains in broiler meat production at the grow-out level pose a headwind to headcount growth.

Even if certain genetic traits are found to improve hatchability, there are additional headwinds to improving hatchability overall. Notably, avian metapneumovirus remains a prominent disease threat. Also, most U.S. hatcheries are more than 40 years old and need updating, which inhibits the flow of capital for improvements. Therefore, in many instances operators incubate any eggs available, resulting in sub-optimal egg quality. There is no quick solution, but improvements require investment in areas that may not be as obvious or implemented by some operators.

How big can we go and is bigger better?

As broilers continue to grow bigger, it begs the question of “how big is too big” for the birds on the line? At slaughter, broiler liveweights in 2025 teetered at 6.6 pounds on average, up 1.2% YoY. While this is a marginal increase, broilers processed in the jumbo segment represent 29% of the mix and average more than 9.3 lbs. The jumbo segment has grown substantially since 2010 when it represented just 10% of broilers processed overall.

While larger birds are more efficient for the industry and genetic selection has facilitated growth, these developments come with compromise. In 2015, instances of Woody Breast Syndrome (WBS), a condition associated with larger bird segments, drew attention in scientific journals and the general press. Ten years later, there seems to be less discussion in the industry of instances of WBS, but processes, detection technology and other investment have helped improve the consumer experience with chicken, despite weights continuing to rise. Relying on efficiencies in per-bird production will require flexibility in processing and technology as line speed efficiency will be needed to meet changing consumer needs.

Greenfield plant expansions boomed following low feed-cost environment

In the years leading up to and around 2010, chicken was seen as a lean, price-competitive alternative to beef. The 2008 financial crisis and recessionary pressures impacted discretionary spending for Americans, boosting chicken on menus everywhere. In short, chicken demand was in a “boom phase.”

Corn and soybeans account for the largest portion of feed used in U.S. broiler rations, and feed is the largest cost component of producing chicken. Bountiful corn and soybean availability and softening prices through mid-2010s amid a broad scale addition of chicken to U.S. menus encouraged the broiler segment to expand primary processing at a strong pace, resulting in a broiler production boom phase. The result was seven new broiler processing facilities through 2021.

From 2022 to 2023, greenfield slaughter plant additions were deterred by high corn prices and instability of consumer demand and eating patterns related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead, the broiler segment has focused on adding pounds of chicken through increased liveweights.

With feed costs again low and animal protein demand remaining exceptional, the opportunity now for animal feeders seems ample and warrants consideration for expansion of headcount and production.

However, for the broiler segment, expansion has been muted. Despite strong margins and improved efficiencies promised by new modern processing lines, greenfield primary processing capacity expansion in the U.S. remains hindered by higher capital costs, elevated interest rates, labor challenges and pushback from local municipalities. Instead, the broiler industry is reinvesting in further processing and replacing labor with automation.

The jumbo capital is flowing into further processed segment

Another paradigm shift in the chicken processing segment comes from the added investment into further processing, which has changed the focus from whole birds to cut parts and further-processed products. In the 1970s, whole chickens held the market share majority in the chicken processing space. Consumer demand has shifted to cut-up parts and ultimately to further processed products, with value-added items like chicken nuggets making up the majority of broiler meat sold to consumers today.

While food at home spending was higher than food away from home 10 years ago, today U.S. consumer dollars spent on food away from home are 34% greater than dollars spent on food at home. During that same period, chicken broadened its appeal on menu offerings. Both inflation and a renewed interest in cooking have modern U.S. households embracing food items that offer convenience, flavor variety, are nutritious and easy to prepare.

With this in mind, it is no surprise that air fryer cooking has become immensely popular in U.S. households in recent years. In 2022, the air fryer leapfrogged over grills and multicookers to become the No. 4 cooking appliance, according to NPD Group data reported by CNBC. In fact, a Nestlé executive says more people have an air fryer today in their kitchen than a coffee maker.

Chicken processors recognized this trend and quickly adopted, moving early on to provide air-fryer ready chicken with air fryer instructions on labels. Expansion of the jumbo bird segment has enabled more customized products, including sized portions, chicken breast strips, and breaded/par-fried chicken, to name a few.

With consumers recognizing the appeal of value-added products, and primary processing experiencing aforementioned headwinds, the boom phase now resides in the value-add segment. Significant capital investment is occurring in the value-add space.

While it may not account for all the investment in chicken processing plants, a search of media coverage revealed more than $2.7 billion has been invested since 2020 in chicken processing plants to expand capacity and add further-processing technologies. This is where broiler production has been picking up pounds sold to consumers in lieu of headcount additions. And it explains how the jumbo bird segment has widened from 10% of broiler processing in 2008 to nearly 30% today.

The advent of more value-add products has shifted most chicken processing away from retail grocery chains and butcher shops and into processing plants. Modern broiler processing facilities heavily rely on a vast workforce to efficiently disassemble carcasses. The dilemma of a shrinking workforce has prompted the investment of more technology to automate processes and keep worker safety as a top priority.

What comes next – the chicken or the egg?

The U.S. broiler industry benefits from a remarkable historical path based on a rather simple concept of converting feed grain and energy into a highly nutritious and affordable protein option for the consumer. As stated earlier, growing production to what it is today did not happen overnight. Remarkable expansion has resulted from industry agility and innovators who embraced technology to overcome challenges and changing consumer preferences.

For decades, much focus was placed upstream of processing. However, in the 21st century, technological advancements and consumer preferences have more fully embraced a shift in production performance accommodating expansion of jumbo bird processing.

Both elevated operational and investment costs associated with new greenfield expansion limit the addition of meaningful head count in the near future. The industry is not optimistic about adding headcount within the current processing plant footprint. Additionally, advancement in hatchery capacity and output upstream remains muted, further supporting that near and mid-term growth will be facilitated by more of the same—adding pounds of chicken through value-add programs.

Even at more than 100 pounds per capita in the U.S., processors are not “chickened out.” According to USDA estimates, U.S. broiler consumption is expected to grow to more than 107 pounds by 2030. Achieving this growth will continue leveraging expanded capacity in the further-processed space.