The Year Ahead 2026: Forces that will shape the U.S. rural economy

2026

The Year Ahead

Forces that will shape the U.S. rural economy

December 2025

Compared to a year ago, economic uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy is much lower, steadying the broader outlook for 2026. We’ll be keenly watching row crop profitability and swelling electricity demand in the year ahead. With tariff concerns easing, the AI boom is emerging as the economic bellwether, but fears of a recession-causing market bubble are overblown.

Contributors

Knowledge Exchange is an innovative knowledge-sharing initiative that is designed to provide strategic insights about trends, structural change, and policy directives within the key rural industries served by CoBank. It draws upon the expertise within CoBank and the rest of the Farm Credit System, the broad perspective of outside consultants and academics, and the first-hand knowledge and experience of our customers to enhance our collective understanding of emerging business opportunities and risks.

Thomas Halverson

Thomas Halverson

Chief Executive Officer

Brian Cavey

Brian Cavey

Senior Vice President, Government Affairs and Knowledge Exchange

Rob Fox

Rob Fox

Vice President, Knowledge Exchange

Brian Earnest

Brian Earnest

Lead Economist, Animal Protein

Tanner Ehmke

Tanner Ehmke

Lead Economist, Grains and Oilseeds

Jacqui Fatka

Jacqui Fatka

Lead Economist, Farm Supply and Biofuels

Corey Geiger

Corey Geiger

Lead Economist, Dairy

Jeff Johnston

Jeff Johnston

Lead Economist, Digital Infrastructure

Emmie Noyes

Emmie Noyes

Industry Analyst

Christina Pope

Christina Pope

Senior Research Editor

Abbi Prins

Abby Prins

Industry Analyst

Billy Roberts

Billy Roberts

Senior Economist, Food and Beverage

Teri Viswanath

Teri Viswanath

Lead Economist, Power, Energy and Water

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this report is not intended to be investment, tax, or legal advice and should not be relied upon by recipients for such purposes. The information contained in this report has been compiled from what CoBank regards as reliable sources. However, CoBank does not make any representation or warranty regarding the content, and disclaims any responsibility for the information, materials, third-party opinions, and data included in this report. In no event will CoBank be liable for any decision made or actions taken by any person or persons relying on the information contained in this report.