Special reports
Signature outlooks and commentary, including The Year Ahead, The Takeaway and The Quarterly, focusing on topics relevant to rural America.
Key issues for rural America
CoBank CEO Tom Halverson shares five key themes that he is focused on as a member of the Brookings-AEI Commission on U.S. Rural Prosperity — and as the CEO of a financial institution that lends exclusively to rural industries.
The Quarterly
The Quarterly: Rising energy costs are squeezing the rural economy
Rural Americans are absorbing some of the most acute fuel cost impacts from the conflict in the Middle East. They drive longer distances, lack public transit and rely on diesel-heavy industries like farming and freight, which quickly affect household budgets and business expenses.
The Quarterly: AI won’t eliminate need for college grads
Despite rising fears, artificial intelligence is unlikely to spark a jobs apocalypse for recent college graduates.
The Quarterly: Where have the workers gone?
Lower fertility rates, declining labor force participation, and lower net immigration are combining to squeeze labor supply. With the labor supply in rural America set to get tighter, technology – most obviously AI and robotics – will likely be at the core of any strategy to address the oncoming labor squeeze.
The Quarterly: Historic shift in trade policy risks long-term loss of trust
CoBank’s Q1 2025 Quarterly report examines the economic forces shaping rural America, highlighting key shifts across agriculture, energy, communications, and financial markets as the year begins.
The Quarterly: Rising electricity demand, supply constraints put AI boom at risk, raise worries over residential rates
CoBank’s Q3 2024 Quarterly report analyzes key economic trends shaping rural industries, highlighting shifts in energy, agriculture, communications, and financial markets heading into 2025.
The Quarterly: As inflation and geopolitical concerns fade, domestic issues come to the fore
The U.S. economy continues to perform reasonably well by most metrics, but the red-hot labor market of the last two years is finally cooling off.
The Quarterly: Sticky inflation puts Fed on the horns of a dilemma
As we pointed out in our Year Ahead report in December, expectations that the Fed would cut rates six or seven times were completely irrational.
The Quarterly: “Higher for longer” a drag on rural economy
The Fed’s battle against inflation amid a resilient U.S. economy has led to the highest interest rate environment since 2007 along with a surging U.S. dollar. That is hurting key segments of the rural economy.
The Quarterly: The slowdown-resistant economy
Despite predictions for a slowdown, the U.S. economy remains the envy of the world. Jobs are plentiful, asset values are near all-time highs, and consumers are spending. Things are good. But inflation is still well above the Fed’s target, and persistent monetary tightening is likely to usher in a mild recession by year-end or early in 2024. Some of the highest inflation rates have been in the grocery store and at restaurants, and that is now triggering consumer pushback. In contrast, energy prices are down considerably, limiting the pain felt at the gas pump and with monthly cooling bills amid sweltering summer heat.
The Quarterly: Adapting to a slowing economy
The U.S. and rural economies remain strong but a slowdown is beginning to unfold. Inflation is falling, U.S. consumers continue to spend, and the labor market is still strong. And despite a commercial banking scare, the Federal Reserve is holding to its monetary tightening course. However, signs of a wavering economy are spreading, albeit slowly
The Quarterly: Inflation is beginning to loosen its grip
The Fed rate hike cycle will soon end, but commodity market supplies remain vulnerable.
The Quarterly: Inflation abundance, commodity shortage
Despite ongoing impacts from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and lingering supply chain effects from the pandemic, the U.S. economy remains incredibly resilient. So resilient, in fact, that consumers’ seemingly unbreakable willingness to spend is vexing the Federal Reserve and causing it to aggressively raise interest rates to stamp out inflation.
The Year Ahead: Forces that will shape the U.S. rural economy
The Year Ahead: Forces that will shape the U.S. rural economy in 2026
A forward‑looking analysis of the key forces shaping the U.S. rural economy in 2026, including interest rates, farm financial conditions, commodity markets, labor challenges, and macroeconomic trends influencing rural industries and agribusiness.
The Year Ahead: Forces that will shape the US rural economy in 2025
While the U.S. economy continues to outperform earlier expectations — delivering solid growth, low unemployment and moderating inflation — the rural economic outlook is less certain
The Year Ahead: Forces that will shape the US rural economy in 2024
Despite multiple systemic shocks in recent years – COVID-19, trade conflict with China, the Russia-Ukraine war, surging inflation and interest rates – our economy has performed strongly.
The Year Ahead: Forces that will shape the U.S. rural economy in 2023
The Russia-Ukraine war, surging inflation, and an energy crisis joined the COVID-19 pandemic this year as major events defining the operating environment for U.S. companies. We can expect to feel the aftershocks in 2023. After posting record high net farm income in 2021 and 2022, margin pressure is coming to agriculture in the coming year.
Other reports
Addressing unsustainable public debt levels—before it’s too late
While the problem of public debt is certainly not new, it has taken on heightened urgency over the last two years as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, making federal borrowing much more expensive than it was previously.
Opportunity for rural America
In 2020, the pandemic changed how millions of Americans did their jobs. Lockdowns forced many people to work from their homes and ushered in a brand-new era where remote work is commonplace. For rural communities around the country, this revolutionary change created a golden opportunity. CoBank explores the opportunity for rural communities to attract new residents and achieve new growth.
Demography and destiny: Population trends in rural America
A CoBank special report on the changing population trends in rural America.
The importance of off-farm income to the agricultural economy
CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange division recently partnered with the University of Missouri to study the economic fabric that supports rural and agricultural communities.
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