The Quarterly: As inflation and geopolitical concerns fade, domestic issues come to the fore

The U.S. economy continues to perform reasonably well by most metrics, but the red-hot labor market of the last two years is finally cooling off. The economy is typically voters’ top concern, but now it’s immigration policy, with strong public sentiment for stricter limits. However, the collapse of U.S. fertility rates means a steady flow of legal immigration will likely be the only way to maintain a stable labor force.

The current farm bill expires on Sept. 30, and Congress is nowhere near reauthorizing a replacement. Historically, the agriculture committees had been the most bipartisan group of legislators in the U.S. Congress; in our current embittered political environment, that’s no longer the case.

Grain and oilseed prices are back to near pre-Ukraine invasion levels. Unfortunately, combined with elevated farming costs, the lower prices will hurt crop profitability. Livestock producers will fare relatively better, but also face headwinds from the strong U.S. dollar and increasing trade frictions. Rural utilities have quickly become among the most dynamic industries with wireless operators scrambling for fiber capabilities and energy providers looking at solar solutions and end-user behavior to head off the oncoming electricity crunch.

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