The longer the political uncertainty endures in the Middle East, the greater the lasting impact of stalled fertilizer and oil production. Fuel and fertilizer prices have increased 20%-40% since the conflict began, and buyers who delayed decision making are more exposed. Improved commodity prices are not anticipated to offset higher farm supply prices. Ongoing supply chain disruptions for urea could recreate 2022-level fertilizer prices without 2022 crop-price support.

