Cotton acreage to post modest rebound in 2026

Tanner Ehmke

April 8, 2026

Key Points

• Cotton farmers plan to expand acreage as prices forge a mild recovery.
• Long-grain rice acreage is projected to be smallest since 1983 as farmers shift acres to soybeans.
• Global abundance of sugar is bearing down on prices, discouraging U.S. farmers from expanding sugarbeet acreage.

Cotton

Cotton prices rebounded last quarter, rising 5.7 cents per pound (8.9%), in line with broader commodity gains. The rally was driven largely by speculators hedging against inflation following the tumult in Iran. U.S. farmers indicated they plan to increase cotton acreage in 2026, defying expectations for cuts as returns lag other crops.

Cotton acres in the U.S. are expected to rise to 9.64 million, up 3.9% YoY. Attention will be focused on the expanding drought conditions across Texas, the top cotton producer in the U.S, as planting progresses.

Cotton demand remains soft as consumers pull back on apparel spending, and a rebound in inflation threatens to further erode disposable income. Cost-conscious consumers also continue to favor cheaper synthetic clothing, cutting into natural-fiber demand. Total export commitments (shipments and unshipped sales combined) for the marketing year were down 7% YoY at quarter-end.

Rice

Rice acreage is set to plunge to its lowest level in five years as U.S. rice farmers struggle with excruciatingly high production costs. Rice prices are floundering compared to other commodities as Indian supplies flood the world market. Rough rice prices managed to forge a recovery last quarter, rising 14.6% on expectations of lost acreage in the U.S. and globally while speculative money flow brought additional price support.

However, high production costs continue to deter rice farmers from expanding acreage. USDA-NASS forecast long-grain rice acreage in the U.S. will fall to 1.65 million acres, down 22% YoY and the lowest since 1983 as farmers in the southern U.S. shift acres primarily to soybeans. Medium- and short-grain rice planted acreage in California is expected to slip to 500,000 acres, down 15,000 or 2.9% YoY. Strong exports of Calrose rice to Japan have prevented medium-grain prices from suffering steeper losses. Elevated reservoir levels are encouraging farmers to retain rice acres.

Sugar

Sugar prices continue to struggle under the weight of global oversupply and eroding consumer demand. Consumption has been pressured by wide-spread use of GLP-1 drugs. U.S. raw sugar prices ended the quarter 4.5% higher, lagging the recovery in other commodities. Midwest refined white sugar prices remain at multi-year lows. Higher exports from India and Brazil continue to pressure world sugar prices as both countries divert more sugar to exports and away from ethanol production.

India’s government granted an additional 500,000 metric tons of sugar for export for the 2025/26 marketing year, on top of the 1.5 MMT approved in November. In Brazil, sugar mills are diverting more cane crushing to sugar production rather than ethanol as corn ethanol grows in prominence. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a 1.22 MMT sugar surplus in 2025-26, with global sugar production rising 3% YoY to 181.3 MMT.

U.S. sugarbeet planted acreage is expected to decline modestly in 2026, falling 1.5% YoY to 1.063 million acres. The tally, though, is the lowest planted acreage since 1982 with sugar prices at multi-year lows. Growers and processors have also struggled with crop quality in some regions. Brown leafing disease affected portions of the sugarbeet harvest in southern Minnesota and North Dakota, lowering sugar concentrations in portions of the sugarbeet crop. USDA currently figures sugar extraction rates for the 2025/26 sugarbeet harvest at 14.8%, down from last year’s 15.7%.