2026 acreage outlook: Soybean acreage set to rebound

Introduction

Farmers have difficult decisions to make in the next few months as they battle low crop prices and high production costs. Thanks to recent price rallies, soybeans offer greater profit potential versus corn, wheat, sorghum, cotton and rice, indicating that soybeans will pick up acres this spring from each of the other major crops. The expansion of U.S. crush capacity and expectations of continued Chinese demand have lifted soybean prices to more attractive levels versus competing crops.

Beyond price signals, crop rotation needs also play a role. Following a big corn year in which acres climbed to the highest level in decades, more corn acres will be available to rotate to soybeans. Farmers are also sitting on record supplies of corn after selling soybeans on rallies. With record supplies of corn in storage, farmers will look to rotate into other crops to diversify marketing risk.

This 2026 outlook serves as a resource for CoBank customers and producers preparing for spring planting. Our conclusions are based on a regression analysis of CoBank internal data, crop prices, and USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service acreage reports, as well as nationwide customer interviews.

Corn

Corn acreage is seen falling 4.8% year-over year to 94.0 million acres. While its overall acreage will dip this year, corn will gain acreage in western states at the expense of wheat, grain sorghum and soybeans.

In the Northern Plains, depressed soybean basis levels will encourage farmers to switch soybean acres to corn. Corn yields have also outperformed several crops such as soybeans and wheat in recent years. Corn has benefited not only from steadier export demand (compared to crops like soybeans and sorghum that have been affected by trade disruptions) but has also seen better crop insurance indemnities than other crops under revenue protection programs. Successive years of high corn yields have convinced farmers that corn genetics perform well in the Plains, and farmers expect their good luck to continue in 2026.

In the Central Plains, corn will gain some acres from wheat and grain sorghum that have suffered from wider cash basis following last year’s bigger harvests and trade disruptions for grain sorghum.

In other regions, heavy corn acres last year indicates more acres will be switching to another crop for rotational purposes, with soybeans typically the favored crop.

Farmers in the Midwest are carrying record levels of corn stocks and will be reluctant to follow with more corn acres this spring. In the Southeast where soybeans are more commonly grown than corn, corn will struggle to expand as farmers opt to include more soybeans in rotations.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean planted area is seen rising 5.9% YoY to 86.0 million acres as soybeans pull acres from multiple crops. Soybean prices have performed comparatively better than most crops on expectations that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will announce a higher renewable volume obligation and that China will continue purchasing soybeans. In the South, soybeans will pull acres from cotton, rice and corn while wheat and corn in the Midwest and Central Plains will lose acres to soybeans.

The outlier will be the Northern Plains where soybean basis remains under pressure from the loss of exports to China, causing farmers to favor more corn acres over soybeans. Soybean yield performance in the region has also been underwhelming relative to corn, encouraging farmers to switch acres from soybeans to corn in pursuit of higher yields. Winter wheat farmers in the Plains and Midwest may also increase double-cropping of soybeans behind wheat harvest, depending on moisture and soybean prices later this summer.

Spring wheat and durum

Spring wheat acres (excluding durum) are expected to fall 1% YoY to 9.89 million acres as spring wheat acres in the Northern Plains shift to corn due to weaker yield performance and profit potential versus corn. The continual westward movement of corn acres often comes at the expense of wheat. However, should USDA predict a substantial decrease in wheat acres in its March 31 Prospective Plantings report that triggers a rally in wheat prices, farmers may change acreage plans and increase spring wheat production in response.

U.S. durum acres are seen falling 3% YoY to 2.12 million acres. Following last year’s jump in durum production when U.S. durum acreage climbed to the highest level in eight years, ample durum stocks in the U.S. and Canada have caused a substantial setback in durum prices versus other crops. Durum, which is grown predominately in North Dakota, will lose acres to pulse crops and spring wheat.

In January, the USDA pegged winter wheat acres at 32.99 million, down 0.5% YoY, hinting at a further reduction pending for spring wheat and durum.

Grain sorghum

Grain sorghum acres are expected to fall 5% YoY to 6.31 million acres as farmers in the Central Plains opt for more corn or soybeans in their rotations in place of sorghum as wide sorghum basis discourages production. Sorghum stocks in the U.S. have climbed to the highest in four years following a bigger harvest last year and an export market still regaining its footing. Wide premiums of corn over sorghum, corn’s impressive yield performance last year, and improved soil moisture conditions in the Central Plains will entice farmers to expand acres to corn in place of sorghum. Steadier local demand for corn with feedlots and favorable crop insurance premiums also favor corn over sorghum. In eastern regions of the Central Plains, soybeans will draw on sorghum because of soybeans’ higher economic returns. Sorghum acres, though, could rebound if substantial export demand to China resurfaces.

Cotton

Our analysis shows U.S. cotton planted acreage will fall again this spring to 9.0 million acres, down 3% YoY to the lowest level in 11 years. Cotton acres in the South will migrate to soybeans, while irrigated cotton acres on the Plains will shift to corn. The slower export pace to China, rising export competition from Brazil and Australia, and increasing use of manmade fiber have prevented cotton prices from rebounding. Base acreage payments, though, will stabilize cotton acres and prevent further erosion.

Rice

We expect all rice planted acreage in the U.S. to fall 20% YoY to 2.83 million acres – the lowest in 30 years – with long-grain rice in the South falling 25% YoY to 1.59 million acres. Of the major commodities, rice is the highest-cost crop to plant and has suffered disproportionately on price as subsidized Indian rice floods the world market. Meanwhile, more South American rice displaces U.S. rice exports into key markets like Mexico. Farmers in the South will be eyeing soybeans as the alternative to long-grain rice. Medium- and short-grain rice acres nationwide are expected to fall to 665,000 acres, down 4.6% YoY, with California acreage estimated at 500,000 acres, down 3% YoY following last year’s jump in acreage.

Conclusion

We expect U.S. planted acreage in 2026 to tilt modestly in favor of soybeans as farmers respond to improved relative returns, expanded domestic crush capacity and rotational needs following last year’s heavy corn plantings. While soybeans are poised to gain acres across much of the country — particularly at the expense of cotton, rice, and wheat — the Northern Plains remain an exception, where weak soybean basis and stronger corn economics favor additional corn planting.

Overall acreage outcomes will hinge on late-winter price movements, insurance dynamics and regional basis signals, but the balance of incentives suggests soybeans are positioned to be the primary beneficiary of acreage reallocation in 2026, even as corn maintains a competitive foothold in key production regions.