Rates have reset higher as inflation persists, growth remains firm and a more hawkish Fed raises long-term yield risks.
Rob Fox is director of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange research division. He leads the team of economists that produces market and industry research in the agricultural and infrastructure sectors affecting the rural economy.
Prior to joining CoBank, Rob spent 13 years in food and agribusiness commercial banking. He has over 25 years of experience in a wide array of agriculture-related roles, in both private industry and the public sector. He started his career as an agricultural economist with USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, and later became a farm business management specialist with the University of Wisconsin Extension Service. Rob and his wife, Jennifer, also owned and operated a 125-cow dairy farm in western Wisconsin.
Rob earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from Northwestern University and a master’s degree in agricultural economics from the University of California, Davis.
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Macroeconomic reports
Inflation, federal debt and AI buildout drive interest rates higher for longer
Rates have reset higher as inflation persists, growth remains firm and a more hawkish Fed raises long-term yield risks.
The Quarterly: Higher costs, tougher choices shape rural economic outlook
Stubborn inflation and higher interest rates are forcing consumers, farmers and businesses to make tougher choices. Households are prioritizing value, while producers and agribusinesses face higher costs, thinner margins and a murkier economic outlook.
Escalating energy costs may upset consumer balancing act
Expect higher energy costs to boost near-term headline inflation by about 1% and create lingering long-term inflationary effects. The spending tailwinds from the “wealth effects” of the escalating stock market and home price appreciation appear to be on pause for now. The combination of higher inflation and declining income growth will squeeze the bottom half of earners, hitting those segments of the economy particularly sensitive to discretionary spending.
The Quarterly: Rising energy costs are squeezing the rural economy
Rural Americans are absorbing some of the most acute fuel cost impacts from the conflict in the Middle East. They drive longer distances, lack public transit and rely on diesel-heavy industries like farming and freight, which quickly affect household budgets and business expenses.
Markets adjust to a new normal
Entering 2026, economic and policy uncertainties are much reduced from a year ago. Although a more pugilistic U.S. trade policy was expected from the new administration, the size and scope of the April “Liberation Day” tariffs sent stocks plummeting—the S&P 500 Index bottomed out 27% below its February high.
The Year Ahead: Forces that will shape the U.S. rural economy in 2026
A forward‑looking analysis of the key forces shaping the U.S. rural economy in 2026, including interest rates, farm financial conditions, commodity markets, labor challenges, and macroeconomic trends influencing rural industries and agribusiness.
The Quarterly: AI won’t eliminate need for college grads
Despite rising fears, artificial intelligence is unlikely to spark a jobs apocalypse for recent college graduates.
The Quarterly: Where have the workers gone?
Lower fertility rates, declining labor force participation, and lower net immigration are combining to squeeze labor supply. With the labor supply in rural America set to get tighter, technology – most obviously AI and robotics – will likely be at the core of any strategy to address the oncoming labor squeeze.
Mexico poised to claim top export spot for US ag product
Mexico is on track to become the top export market for U.S. agricultural products, driven by strong consumer demand, competitive logistics, and shifting global trade dynamics that continue to reshape North American ag markets.
The Quarterly: Historic shift in trade policy risks long-term loss of trust
CoBank’s Q1 2025 Quarterly report examines the economic forces shaping rural America, highlighting key shifts across agriculture, energy, communications, and financial markets as the year begins.
The Year Ahead: Forces that will shape the U.S. rural economy in 2025
While the U.S. economy continues to outperform earlier expectations — delivering solid growth, low unemployment and moderating inflation — the rural economic outlook is less certain
The Quarterly: Rising electricity demand, supply constraints put AI boom at risk, raise worries over residential rates
CoBank’s Q3 2024 Quarterly report analyzes key economic trends shaping rural industries, highlighting shifts in energy, agriculture, communications, and financial markets heading into 2025.