The Quarterly: AI Won’t Eliminate Need for College Grads

Brian Earnest , Tanner Ehmke , Jacqui Fatka , Rob Fox , Corey Geiger , Jeff Johnston , Emmie Noyes , Christina Pope , Abbi Prins , Billy Roberts , Lauren Sturgeon Bailey and Teri Viswanath

October 15, 2025

Despite rising fears, artificial intelligence is unlikely to spark a jobs apocalypse for recent college graduates – essential hiring attributes remain problem-solving, teamwork, and communication, and AI is a tool to enhance these skills rather than replace jobs. Despite the massive surge in AI adoption in 2025, college graduates’ employment and wage premiums have remained stable.

Macroeconomic uncertainties remain in the face of tariffs, declining immigration, and massive AI investments, but the Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering rates well into 2026 — a silver lining for beleaguered crop farmers.

While U.S. farmers are harvesting record large row crops, prices remain in the doldrums. Corn exports are robust, but domestic demand growth is minimal. Soybean exports continue to struggle but new domestic crush facilities are providing some support. Crop production costs remain elevated with extremely high fertilizer prices and crop input tariffs up from 1% to nearly 12%. Delayed renewable volume obligations and small refinery exemption reallocations cloud the biofuels demand outlook.

Strong demand for meat and dairy products, combined with low feed costs, continue bolstering livestock profitability. Already tight beef cattle supplies are now at risk from New World Screwworm. “Beef-on-dairy” calves have significantly boosted dairy farm revenues, contributing to the largest U.S. dairy herd in over 30 years.

Large investments in new data centers could temporarily raise residential rates but may help control costs in the future by supporting needed infrastructure.

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